This month the Registrar General released its ‘Annual Review of Demographic Trends’ for Scotland. Scotland’s population has steadily increased year on year since 2002 to reach 5.17 million people in 2008.

Whilst there were 3,900 more births than deaths last year, the leading reason for these increases was migration. There was a net migration gain of 20,000 people in 2008 with 93% of migrants from the rest of the UK coming from England.  Trends showed that most of those moving to and from Scotland were between the ages of 16-34 and that there was no significant “retirement migration” (only 6% of people coming to Scotland from the rest of the UK were 64 and over). As with the majority of European countries, the Registrar General predicts that the population of Scotland will age considerably between 2006 and 2031.  The number of children under 16 is expected to decrease by 7% and the number of older people over 60 is expected to rise by 54%.

Although mortality rates have generally fallen slowly compared to the UK and Europe, average life expectancy remains relatively low in Scotland (compared to the European averages).  And whilst the Scottish Government has taken a very proactive approach to ageing policy, it is clear that one of the major challenges remains how to increase healthy life expectancy associated with some of its poorest regions.

The statistics also looked at rates of growths for households in Scotland, projecting that by 2031 there will 2.7 million households (there were 2.3 million in 2008).  The largest increases are projected in households of people 60 and over with an estimated 50% increase between 2006 and 2031. Projections also indicate the number of households headed by someone 85 or over will more than double from 69,000 in 2006 to 177,000 in 2031.  28% of properties in Scotland are entitled to Council Tax discount with only one adult residing there and these single occupancy households are set to increase. These striking figures strengthen the arguments for the introduction of both lifetime homes and neighbourhoods. They also highlight a growing potential problem of under-occupancy. It is clear we must build more (and more appropriate) new homes to meet the needs of a population increasingly living alone.

Scotland is still experiencing similar population trends to England and Wales and it will be interesting to draw comparisons when the Office for National Statistics releases their next figures.  With life expectancy continuing to rise and the number of single occupancy households increasing, Scotland will undoubtedly continue to face the same health and social care issues England and Wales has.

Rhiannon Freeland