International Longevity Centre - UK

An article in The Sunday Times this week exposed the fragility of the UK’s public flood defences with particular regard to the built environment. The Environment Agency predicts one in six properties in England may be at risk, however professional risk consultants pitch it at one in four. Such impending horrors are not an under-reported phenomenon, but how our population will fare however with rising water levels remains largely unanswered.

Indeed with an ageing population, how we protect and manage risk for those who are the most vulnerable in our society demands critical attention. Flooding, flu pandemics, power-cuts or heat-waves for example, all pose significant and specific challenges for older people. A report commissioned by Help the Aged in 2007 entitled ‘Vulnerability of Older People and Emergencies in the United Kingdom’ demonstrated just how woefully overlooked older people’s vulnerabilities were in local authority planning decisions for emergencies. With very limited information pertaining to planning management for older people in emergencies in the UK and at the start of the project no evidence of any local authority assessing older people’s vulnerabilities, it is a testament to the pioneering spirit of the author Tim Randall, a report was even possible.

Perhaps even more disturbing is the emerging concept of ‘resilience’ as a buzzword in the disaster management debate and the subsequent repercussions this has for older people. Resilience essentially means minimising damage, therefore with regard to flooding, an increasing onus will be on the owner/occupier to prepare and protect their homes from flooding. There is limited support from grants made available from the ‘Making Space for Water Strategy’ but currently only 714 properties out of the 5.2million at risk would benefit from this grant and age would not part of the eligibility criteria. Older people therefore will become increasingly vulnerable to flooding if they can not make the structural changes now being suggested to protect their homes. As Richard Girling in the Times wrote: “It becomes a question for every household for itself, sauve qui peut”. Older people therefore not only find themselves at a disadvantage with respect to risk reduction in floods, but also due to possible mobility problems, financial constraints and isolation they are arguably more at risk of actual harm when a flood strikes.

There are of course other sub-groups who will similarly be at risk and disadvantaged, including people with disabilities and children. The question for policy-makers therefore is how can we protect some of the most vulnerable in our society when the prevailing wind suggests it could be every man for himself?

Sally-Marie Bamford

This month the Registrar General released its ‘Annual Review of Demographic Trends’ for Scotland. Scotland’s population has steadily increased year on year since 2002 to reach 5.17 million people in 2008.
 

Whilst there were 3,900 more births than deaths last year, the leading reason for these increases was migration. There was a net migration gain of 20,000 people in 2008 with 93% of migrants from the rest of the UK coming from England.  Trends showed that most of those moving to and from Scotland were between the ages of 16-34 and that there was no significant “retirement migration” (only 6% of people coming to Scotland from the rest of the UK were 64 and over). As with the majority of European countries, the Registrar General predicts that the population of Scotland will age considerably between 2006 and 2031.  The number of children under 16 is expected to decrease by 7% and the number of older people over 60 is expected to rise by 54%.
 

Although mortality rates have generally fallen slowly compared to the UK and Europe, average life expectancy remains relatively low in Scotland (compared to the European averages).  And whilst the Scottish Government has taken a very proactive approach to ageing policy, it is clear that one of the major challenges remains how to increase healthy life expectancy associated with some of its poorest regions.
 

The statistics also looked at rates of growths for households in Scotland, projecting that by 2031 there will 2.7 million households (there were 2.3 million in 2008).  The largest increases are projected in households of people 60 and over with an estimated 50% increase between 2006 and 2031. Projections also indicate the number of households headed by someone 85 or over will more than double from 69,000 in 2006 to 177,000 in 2031.  28% of properties in Scotland are entitled to Council Tax discount with only one adult residing there and these single occupancy households are set to increase. These striking figures strengthen the arguments for the introduction of both lifetime homes and neighbourhoods. They also highlight a growing potential problem of under-occupancy. It is clear we must build more (and more appropriate) new homes to meet the needs of a population increasingly living alone.
 

Scotland is still experiencing similar population trends to England and Wales and it will be interesting to draw comparisons when the Office for National Statistics releases their next figures.  With life expectancy continuing to rise and the number of single occupancy households increasing, Scotland will undoubtedly continue to face the same health and social care issues England and Wales has.
 

Rhiannon Freeland